SW Solar: Will the counter boil up with solar energy?

 Friends, herein I share my view on SW Solar with different timeframes. 

Weekly chart with pattern:

Company’s share got listed on the exchanges during the mid of August 2019 and entered downward trajectory since then till end of March 2020. During the mid of November 2019, the counter even witnessed gap down opening, creating extreme supply zone. 

After making the final bottom during March 2020, counter entered sideways consolidation of almost 22 months (94 weekly bars), creating curve (cup and handle formation) which helped in identifying the breakout zone. During the first week of September 2021, price showed the first breakout of consolidation with sizable volume. Price decisively remained above breakout since then, confirming trend reversal. 

Breakout of 350 zone had 2 confirmations, first being breakout of 22 months’ consolidation and second being gap down resistance of November 2019. 

After confirmed breakout, price is holding up well above gap zone. Though there is been recent decline, but the strength is clearly missing and that too without volumes. 

Weekly chart with volume activity:

Within consolidation, every uptick had positive higher volumes compared to sideways / down tick. Also point to note is, every uptick volume is higher than previously recorded volume of the bounce, which confirms accumulation by strong hands. 

Weekly chart with Ichimoku & Volume:

During end of June 2021, for the very first time since listing, price decisively crossed Ichimoku cloud and all 5 indicators of Ichimoku confirmed buy. The breakout was with the second highest volume so far. Price is also holding up well above Kijun Sen since then, confirming the trend being intact. 

Daily chart with pattern & retracement:

Compared to the last advance from the zone of 220 to almost above 500, the recent correction of price till 377 is showing retracement of 38.2%. Fibonacci defines this as healthy correction during ongoing rally. The price consolidation (correction) is showing falling wedge kind of formation with lower volumes, breakout of the same will be confirmed above 410 (highlighted with horizontal blue line). 

 

Putting it all together:

Looking at weekly chart formation, with volume activity, along with Ichimoku indicator and daily chart formation confirms strong positive trend. One can keep the stock on radar for new breakout as highlighted. 

 

Cheers,
Kunal

Twitter Handle: @RambhiaKunal, Youtube channel: "KunalRambhia"

KRFA contact details:  (+91) 7045968847

 

Statutory Disclosure:

Kindly note that this update is only for educational purpose. It is safe to assume that my personal position, my fund's position, and my client's, as well as relative's position, may be open in the counter. Prefer to take the advice of your financial advisor before initiating any position.

Gold: Will it soon glitter like never before?

 Friends, herein I share my positional view on Gold with various higher timeframe charts. Longer historical data is available in dollar terms. So, I prefer to study gold in dollar terms.

 

Monthly Chart: Time Cycle

This is monthly line chart of Gold since 1970 in dollar terms. By studying data, it seems that wave changes the direction approximately after every 127 bars (periods). The longer cycle in between was also approx. double the regular cycle. The most recent cycle was time correction cycle, ranging from August 2011 till now. Seems that this cycle may end anytime soon near to Jan – Feb 2022. Alternate phase is seen so far, highlighted in following table. 

 

Phase of cycle	Price Behavior
1970 – 1980	Trending phase
1980 – 2001	Sideways phase (Time correction)
2001 – 2011	Trending phase
2011 – till now	Sideways phase (Time correction)
2022 onwards	Possible trending phase

Monthly RSI:

Interesting behavior of RSI is seen since 1970. Whenever RSI has surpassed 50 but failed to surpass 70 zone (overbought zone), it has continued its sideways consolidation. Such 2 instances are highlighted on the chart with number 1&2. 

But whenever RSI has surpassed 50, followed by 70 zone, it has entered decisive rally. Such 3 instances are highlighted by making circles. In the present time, RSI has decisively crossed 70 zone, sustained and forming higher tops higher bottoms (well above 50). Historical data suggest there is bright possibility of rally emerging soon. 

Weekly chart highlighting Patterns:

It’s very clearly seen as curve formation since 2011. As the curve formation is nearing end, price entered symmetrical triangle formation, small corrective pattern. Possible breakout (continuation) is likely in couple of weeks, which is coinciding with all previous views so far. 

 

Weekly Fibonacci Ratio:

 

 

Symmetrical triangle formation is holding well above 38.2% retracement of the last massive incline. 38.2% is considered to be a healthy correction in an ongoing rally, which is happening alongside time correction (symmetrical triangle), confirming minimum possibility of price decline hereon. 

 

Weekly chart with Ichimoku Indicator:

 

 

Ichimoku is a trending indicator. It highlights the present trend, future trend, price action compared to the past and also highlights strength. Price crossed Ichimoku cloud during 2019 and sustained above the same since then. Trend still remains intact. Sideways consolidation since 2021 is forcing Ichimoku lines to juggle, narrowing cloud, which is supporting a directional rally (even symmetrical triangle is suggesting the same) anytime. 

 

Putting it all together:

Monthly time cycle since 1970, relative strength on monthly chart, curve & symmetrical triangle formation on weekly charts with Ichimoku trend confirmation alongside Fibonacci support, all confirm limited downside & potential new bullish rally soon. This time it may rally like never before, considering Equity rally, monetary as well as fiscal situation so far. 

 

Cheers, 
Kunal 

(Kindly note that shared view is on high timeframe charts (mostly monthly and weekly). This helps to understand upcoming cycle / move on longer timeframe.)

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The new batch of "Technical Analysis Mentorship Program" is coming up in December. Kindly contact on (+91) 7045968847 (KRFA) for inquiry.

 

Statutory Disclosure:

Kindly note that this update is only for educational purpose. It is safe to assume that my personal position, my fund's position, and my client's, as well as relative's position, may be open in the counter. Prefer to take the advice of your financial advisor before initiating any position.