Borosil Renewables: Will it shine like its Solar glasses soon ?

 Dear Readers, 

Markets have been choppy with positive bias. Indices are making new highs every week and volatility is increasing day by day. It's important for the market participants to enjoy the rally, but at the same time, remain strict on risk management part. Preferable approach should be a complete hedge with cautious attitude. Certainly stock specific moves are likely to continue.

Friends, Herein I share one of such stock ideas, which is Borosil Renewables. One of the most recent updates is that I have started mentoring Technical analysis sessions at AJIRA FINANCIAL ACADEMY. After long, I share my first update on the counter via AJIRA FINANCIAL ACADEMY blog. 

I request all my readers to kindly read the update & share with all (if you find it worth the efforts). 

https://ajirafinancialacademy.blogspot.com/2024/01/borosil-renewables-smart-long-term-buy.html?m=1

SW Solar: Will the counter boil up with solar energy?

 Friends, herein I share my view on SW Solar with different timeframes. 

Weekly chart with pattern:

Company’s share got listed on the exchanges during the mid of August 2019 and entered downward trajectory since then till end of March 2020. During the mid of November 2019, the counter even witnessed gap down opening, creating extreme supply zone. 

After making the final bottom during March 2020, counter entered sideways consolidation of almost 22 months (94 weekly bars), creating curve (cup and handle formation) which helped in identifying the breakout zone. During the first week of September 2021, price showed the first breakout of consolidation with sizable volume. Price decisively remained above breakout since then, confirming trend reversal. 

Breakout of 350 zone had 2 confirmations, first being breakout of 22 months’ consolidation and second being gap down resistance of November 2019. 

After confirmed breakout, price is holding up well above gap zone. Though there is been recent decline, but the strength is clearly missing and that too without volumes. 

Weekly chart with volume activity:

Within consolidation, every uptick had positive higher volumes compared to sideways / down tick. Also point to note is, every uptick volume is higher than previously recorded volume of the bounce, which confirms accumulation by strong hands. 

Weekly chart with Ichimoku & Volume:

During end of June 2021, for the very first time since listing, price decisively crossed Ichimoku cloud and all 5 indicators of Ichimoku confirmed buy. The breakout was with the second highest volume so far. Price is also holding up well above Kijun Sen since then, confirming the trend being intact. 

Daily chart with pattern & retracement:

Compared to the last advance from the zone of 220 to almost above 500, the recent correction of price till 377 is showing retracement of 38.2%. Fibonacci defines this as healthy correction during ongoing rally. The price consolidation (correction) is showing falling wedge kind of formation with lower volumes, breakout of the same will be confirmed above 410 (highlighted with horizontal blue line). 

 

Putting it all together:

Looking at weekly chart formation, with volume activity, along with Ichimoku indicator and daily chart formation confirms strong positive trend. One can keep the stock on radar for new breakout as highlighted. 

 

Cheers,
Kunal

Twitter Handle: @RambhiaKunal, Youtube channel: "KunalRambhia"

KRFA contact details:  (+91) 7045968847

 

Statutory Disclosure:

Kindly note that this update is only for educational purpose. It is safe to assume that my personal position, my fund's position, and my client's, as well as relative's position, may be open in the counter. Prefer to take the advice of your financial advisor before initiating any position.

Gold: Will it soon glitter like never before?

 Friends, herein I share my positional view on Gold with various higher timeframe charts. Longer historical data is available in dollar terms. So, I prefer to study gold in dollar terms.

 

Monthly Chart: Time Cycle

This is monthly line chart of Gold since 1970 in dollar terms. By studying data, it seems that wave changes the direction approximately after every 127 bars (periods). The longer cycle in between was also approx. double the regular cycle. The most recent cycle was time correction cycle, ranging from August 2011 till now. Seems that this cycle may end anytime soon near to Jan – Feb 2022. Alternate phase is seen so far, highlighted in following table. 

 

Phase of cycle	Price Behavior
1970 – 1980	Trending phase
1980 – 2001	Sideways phase (Time correction)
2001 – 2011	Trending phase
2011 – till now	Sideways phase (Time correction)
2022 onwards	Possible trending phase

Monthly RSI:

Interesting behavior of RSI is seen since 1970. Whenever RSI has surpassed 50 but failed to surpass 70 zone (overbought zone), it has continued its sideways consolidation. Such 2 instances are highlighted on the chart with number 1&2. 

But whenever RSI has surpassed 50, followed by 70 zone, it has entered decisive rally. Such 3 instances are highlighted by making circles. In the present time, RSI has decisively crossed 70 zone, sustained and forming higher tops higher bottoms (well above 50). Historical data suggest there is bright possibility of rally emerging soon. 

Weekly chart highlighting Patterns:

It’s very clearly seen as curve formation since 2011. As the curve formation is nearing end, price entered symmetrical triangle formation, small corrective pattern. Possible breakout (continuation) is likely in couple of weeks, which is coinciding with all previous views so far. 

 

Weekly Fibonacci Ratio:

 

 

Symmetrical triangle formation is holding well above 38.2% retracement of the last massive incline. 38.2% is considered to be a healthy correction in an ongoing rally, which is happening alongside time correction (symmetrical triangle), confirming minimum possibility of price decline hereon. 

 

Weekly chart with Ichimoku Indicator:

 

 

Ichimoku is a trending indicator. It highlights the present trend, future trend, price action compared to the past and also highlights strength. Price crossed Ichimoku cloud during 2019 and sustained above the same since then. Trend still remains intact. Sideways consolidation since 2021 is forcing Ichimoku lines to juggle, narrowing cloud, which is supporting a directional rally (even symmetrical triangle is suggesting the same) anytime. 

 

Putting it all together:

Monthly time cycle since 1970, relative strength on monthly chart, curve & symmetrical triangle formation on weekly charts with Ichimoku trend confirmation alongside Fibonacci support, all confirm limited downside & potential new bullish rally soon. This time it may rally like never before, considering Equity rally, monetary as well as fiscal situation so far. 

 

Cheers, 
Kunal 

(Kindly note that shared view is on high timeframe charts (mostly monthly and weekly). This helps to understand upcoming cycle / move on longer timeframe.)

Follow me on Twitter @RambhiaKunal for regular updates !

Launching youtube channel Named "KunalRambhia". Do subscribe for educational updates !

The new batch of "Technical Analysis Mentorship Program" is coming up in December. Kindly contact on (+91) 7045968847 (KRFA) for inquiry.

 

Statutory Disclosure:

Kindly note that this update is only for educational purpose. It is safe to assume that my personal position, my fund's position, and my client's, as well as relative's position, may be open in the counter. Prefer to take the advice of your financial advisor before initiating any position. 

Silver: Chaandi Chaandi Soon Again ?

 Hello Friends, 

Sharing my technical view on Silver (dollar terms). Dollar terms prices have longer history and share high positive correlation with silver prices across the world. 

Historical formations:

From the highs of 1980s till now, price action is clearly forming a massive curve. Interesting observation here is that the first high was recorded during 1980 and almost similar high was recorded during April 2011. Again price is reversing positive and this entire formation is curve family formation (bright possibility of cup & handle formation)

Ichimoku on Monthly chart:

During May 2013, prices fell below the Ichimoku cloud, confirming the bearish trend. Till July 2020, prices remained below the cloud. Massive breakout was seen during July 2020 and since then prices have sustained well above Kumo Cloud, which is confirming the inherent strength. 

Since August 2020 till now, prices are constantly taking decisive support on Kijun Sen, confirming mid-term positive trend. 

Future cloud is also turning strong, which confirms that rally is likely to remain intact. 

Monthly formations (Fibo & price action):

From the lows of 2001 to the highs of 2011, if we plot fibonacci retracement, price just took perfect support at 78.6% zone, consolidated well and bounced from consolidation. Consolidation breakout is also coinciding with 61.8% retracement. 

Small sideways consolidation, after massive consolidation breakout, is forming flag. Retesting of breakout, 61.8% and flag bottom are all coinciding, which is offering strong support to the price. 

Weekly chart for understanding Levels:

On weekly chart, this is highlighted zone to accumulate silver. 

Putting it all together:

Decades of price action and recent few years of price action along with Fibo retracement and ichimoku is suggesting good times ahead for silver. 

Kindly note that view shared is on Monthly chart. Don't consider to be like mid term view. 

Cheers,

Kunal

Follow me on Twitter @RambhiaKunal for regular updates !

Launching youtube channel Named "KunalRambhia". Do subscribe for educational updates !

The new batch of "Technical Analysis Mentorship Program" is coming up in November. Kindly contact on (+91) 7045968847 (KRFA) for inquiry.

 

Statutory Disclosure:

Kindly note that this update is only for educational purpose. It is safe to assume that my personal position, my fund's position, and my client's, as well as relative's position, may be open in the counter. Prefer to take the advice of your financial advisor before initiating any position. 

ITC: Can Elephant Dance?

 Hello friends, 

Sharing my technical view on a counter that has been an underperformer on price action for quite a long time. 

Monthly Timeframe with Fibo:

If the entire journey is considered on the price action, the stock tested 61.8% zone during 2020 fall and now making higher tops and higher bottoms, confirming the mid-term positive trend. 

Weekly timeframe with zone:

Since 2013, there were multiple rallies, both, positive as well as negative. But 200 zone is been an important zone for the stock. Considering 200 to be a mean reversion zone, it's presently just onto the same zone, offering a favorable risk-reward ratio for the position.

Weekly timeframe with Average & RSI:

Price entered higher top higher bottom and RSI also continued its northward journey, confirming the trend strength. The counter is recently facing a resistance of 120 period's EMA. Strength is decently built up on the counter and so it's likely to break out. 220 zone to watch out for "Trend confirmation" as well as for "momentum trade". 

Weekly timeframe Ichimoku:

First time since 2018, the counter has crossed and sustained above the Kumo cloud on the weekly timeframe. Price is simply taking the support of the same cloud and the future cloud is turning bullish too. There is a bright possibility of the continuation of a new trend. 

Daily timeframe Trendline:

The simple trendline on the daily chart shows the change in polarity in action and the stock decently respecting the same since a year. 

Ratio chart of ITC & Nifty:

The ratio chart of ITC and Nifty is plotted since 1995. The yellow trendline is acting very strong for the Ratio since then. Also, the recent decline in the ratio is now showing positive divergence on the RSI front, onto the support trendline, which is making ITC worth seeing at present levels. 

Putting it all together:

The Ratio chart with positional view, Monthly retracement at the golden ratio, weekly 120 Period moving average along with RSI, ichimoku Kumo cloud support, all are supporting it to worth taking a positional view on the counter with the favorable risk-reward ratio. 

Cheers, 

Kunal 

Follow me on Twitter @RambhiaKunal for regular updates !

Launching youtube channel Named "KunalRambhia". Do subscribe for educational updates !

The new batch of "Technical Analysis Mentorship Program" is coming up in August. Kindly contact on (+91) 7045968847 (KRFA) for inquiry.

 

Statutory Disclosure:

Kindly note that this update is only for educational purpose. It is safe to assume that my personal position, my fund's position, and my client's, as well as relative's position, may be open in the counter. Prefer to take the advice of your financial advisor before initiating any position. 

BHEL: Will this "tasty food of the Street" get "Chef touch" to make it more delicious ?

 Hello all, 

Before we move onto all observations of BHEL, herein I share something which I enjoy doing along with my fund management activity. 

I conduct online sessions to teach Technical Analysis. The online journey started a year back and we, at KRFA, have conducted 4 online sessions by now (and many offline sessions in the last 3 years), adding more than 65 participants to our growing KRFA family. The new batch for the session is upcoming next week. Details are shared here. I would feel fortunate to serve you all; if anyone of you wishes to learn Technical Analysis. Feel free to contact KRFA at 7045968847.

Let's begin with observations of BHEL. First, we look at the monthly chart to understand broader 

formation. 

Monthly Price Action: 

Price is in decline mode for a decade. But it was contracting in nature, creating falling wedge formation, which is bullish in nature. 

Breakout of the falling wedge was seen during Feb 2021. Follow-through price action is seen in the present month. The price made bottom during April 2020 and since then volume is supporting the uptick. Volumes recorded are the highest ever recorded since the listing. Similar volumes were seen during 2000, confirming accumulation volume. 

Weekly price action: 

Price is showing a decisive curve formation on the chart. The declining trendline breakout confirms the emergence of a new trend.

The higher top higher bottom is confirmed based on the breakout of a black dotted line. The recent uptick is showing a perfect trend after retesting the breakout level. 

The blue line (previous high) breakout will confirm a curve formation breakout. 

Every uptick is confirmed with positive Volume activity (highlighted with trendline on volume). This confirms the likely emergence of a new trend. 

MACD on the weekly chart: 

MACD has crossed 'zero' line and has traded decisively above that, confirming the emergence of a bullish trend. 

Moving Average on the weekly chart:

160 period's EMA on the weekly chart is decisively offering resistance since 2015. The specific observation is that it's the first time that price is attempting to trigger a breakout immediately after the first attempt. On the breakout of the EMA, the uptrend will get moving average confirmation. 

Ichimoku on the weekly chart:

This indicator confirms the trend of the price. June 2015 was a failed attempt to cross the Kumo cloud. May - June of 2017 was again a failed attempt. Presently, the cloud is turned comparatively thin and the price has decisively remained about the same and also made higher top higher bottom too. Future cloud is also showing bullishness and price is trending well above Tenkan & Kijun along with Chikou in free air above the price. All confirm the beginning of a new trend. 

ADX DMI on the weekly chart: 

This indicator confirms the strength of the trend. Since bottom formation in April 2020, clear HTHB is seen on the price action. +DMI is turned dominating, crossed 25 levels, and "cross & hold" is in action. Eventually, ADX has surpassed 25 levels, confirming the strength of the move. 

Fibonacci Extension on the weekly chart:

Fibonacci is used as the price is forming a series of HTHB. This tool helps to define the approximate target on the price action. Using the first swing, the approximate target comes to 68 (161.8% extension) and 93 (261.8% extension). 

Putting it all together:

Monthly as well as the weekly timeframe is confirming a firm price action underway for the counter. Looking at various indicators and price action, it seems safe to accumulate the counter on every level. Unless a massive downside emerges on the counter, its uptrend will remain intact. 

Cheers, 

Kunal 

Follow me on Twitter @RambhiaKunal for regular updates !

Launching youtube channel Named "KunalRambhia". Do subscribe for educational updates !

Statutory Disclosure:

Kindly note that this update is only for educational purpose. It is safe to assume that my personal position, my fund's position, and my client's, as well as relative's position, may be open in the counter. Prefer to take the advice of your financial advisor before initiating any position. 

IOB: Can This Deliver Surprise Returns ?

 Hello all, 

Herein I share my observation on IOB. Many of the market participants may not be willing to read this further on the name of the counter itself :) But I give importance to price performance & found this worth spending time on analysis, keeping risk-reward in mind.

Monthly Ichimoku:

Price broke below Kumo cloud during 2011 and remained below the same since then. It's the first time in the decade, the price is entering Kumo Cloud, challenging downtrend, along with Tenkan crossing Kijun upside. This has generated the first ray of hope in the darkness. 

Weekly 200 EMA:

200 week's exponential moving average is served as a decent resistance during the entire decade. The price crossed above moving average once during mid of 2014, but failed to sustain above the same. It's one more attempt after 7 years again. Well, whether it will sustain or not is anyone's guess, though worth keeping in mind. 

Weekly Ichimoku:

After 2 unsuccessful attempts since mid of 2017, it's the First time that prices have sustained above the cloud and have decently consolidated. Future cloud is turned bullish along with Tenkan - Kijun crossover and Chikou Span in open space. All screaming trend reversal from bearish to bullish. 

Weekly RSI:

RSI entered overbought zone first time in 2002 and stock ended up delivering 600% returns. Similarly, 3 times RSI entered overbought zone and counter delivered 100% returns. Well, counter has doubled from the low by now, BUT the RSI has not given up like the recent 3 events which are highlighted. So can this time it can deliver more? Well, it's worth remembering point. 

Weekly ADX:

Trending ADX shows the emerging trend. Not speaking much on DMI behavior. Strength picked up during 2007 - 2011 and stock delivered more than 400%. Similar strength is picking up and still not giving up. Again, a point worth noting ...

Daily Chart Price Action:

Massive curve formation since 2018 is coming to an end with a small curve within the bigger one. The end of the curve is been supported with the highest ever recorded volumes. On curve (so-called cup and handle) breakout, the price can confirm the end of consolidation and beginning of an uptrend. 

Fibonacci Extension:

Fibonacci numbers have great importance even in Elliott waves to gauge the extent of correction and potential targets. 3 levels are given importance, 161.8%, 261.8% and 423.6%. These extensions are applied on higher top higher bottom confirmation. Looking at recent price action, it makes sense to apply the extension tool and stay optimistic. 

Putting it all together:

After studying the monthly and the weekly Ichimoku set up, RSI, ADX, 200 Week's Exponential Moving Average & price action on the weekly and the daily chart, I feel IOB is offering the best risk-reward setup with all favorable price actions. 

Cheers,

Kunal

Follow me on Twitter @RambhiaKunal for regular updates

Statutory Disclosure:

Kindly note that this update is only for educational purpose. It is safe to assume that my personal position, my fund's position, and my client's, as well as relative's position, maybe open in the counter. Prefer to take the advice of your financial advisor before initiating any position. Prefer to keep the risk-reward ratio in mind, give importance to personal temperament, risk appetite, and financial background.